Speeding on the Highway, Homework, and Goodhart's Law
I don't know about you, but the first thought that came to my mind when I read this headline was homework, and then I thought about Goodhart's Law.
Let me explain, by talking about homework first. "Don't come out of your room until your homework is done" is often met with groans when one is a student, but never in my case. It was always music to my ears.
And the reason it was music to my ears was because my strategy always was to finish my homework as quickly as possible, and then spend the rest of the time cooped up in my room, reading away to my heart's content.
The trick, of course, was to never let on that I had the ability to finish my homework quickly.
Goodhart's Law says that "Any measure that becomes a target stops being a measure". Watch this excellent video by my friend Navin about the topic, if you haven't heard about it before:
And the reason I got reminded of Goodhart's Law is because of the delicious way in which that headline is phrased:
"Pay Fine If You Cross Mysuru-Bengaluru Highway In Less Than 60 Minutes"
What is the objective?
To make sure that cars don't drive on the highway at recklessly high speedsHow do we achieve this?
By making sure that no car finishes the entire stretch of the highway in less than 60 minutes.So what is the target, again?
Reduce overspeeding.What is the measure?
Time spent on the highway.So you're saying that once this measure becomes a target, it stops being a measure?
Think about it - if the target was to make sure that I spent enough time studying, and the measure was the amount of time I spent sitting at my desk in my room... was it a really useful measure anymore?So drive as fast as you like, but make sure you have a leisurely coffee before you cross the final toll gate?
I am not recommending that anyone ever do this! But I am worrying that this is one of the ways in which such an idea may not work.
The point isn't to say that this is a bad idea, or to criticise it. God knows we need better traffic discipline on our roads. The point is to show that designing good public policy interventions is hard, and to show that Goodhart's Law can crop up anywhere, at any time.
I have not traveled on this particular highway, and I cannot say for sure if it is possible to pull up at a food court. Maybe the police have speed guns at various point along the highway, and maybe there are other ways to catch someone who is speeding.
All I'm saying is that particular headline took me back to the days when I would sit in my room and, er, study. And it also made for a nice little blog post.
No?